Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round

Nov 9, 2022 at 3pm UK

Estádio dos Barreiros

Nacional
1 - 0
Tondela

Dudu (75')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Fourth Round clash between Nacional and Tondela.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

Last Game: Nacional 1-2 Estoril
Sunday, July 25 at 6pm in Taca da Liga

Tondela

All competitions

Last Game: Porto 3-0 Tondela
Saturday, July 30 at 8.45pm in Portuguese Super Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Tondela
37.67% ( 0.01)	26.4% ( 0.05)	35.92% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 52.84% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.07% (

-0.24)

51.93% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.32% (

-0.2)

73.67% (

0.2)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.2% (

-0.11)

26.79% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.92% (

-0.14)

62.08% (

0.14)

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.18% (

-0.15)

27.81% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.59% (

-0.19)

63.4% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Nacional 37.67%

Tondela 35.92%

Draw 26.4%

Nacional	Draw	Tondela
1-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 37.67%	1-1 @ 12.55% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.4%	0-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.04% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.86% Total : 35.92%