Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 56.97%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 23.63% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.95%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.

Result
Southampton Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
56.97% ( 0.21)	19.4% ( -0.06)	23.63% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 70.19% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.96% (

0.16)

26.05% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

53.73% (

0.21)

46.27% (

-0.21)

Southampton Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.58% (

0.1)

9.42% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.32% (

0.23)

31.69% (

-0.23)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.49% (

-0)

22.51% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.92% (

-0.01)

56.08% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Southampton Under-21s 56.97%

Derby County Under-21s 23.63%

Draw 19.4%

Southampton Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.1% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 56.97%	1-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.66% Total : 19.4%	1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 23.63%