Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 70.83%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 13.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.94%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Manchester City Under-21s
13.8% ( -0.31)	15.37% ( -0.3)	70.83% ( 0.6)

Both teams to score 66.61% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

77.25% (

0.79)

22.74% (

-0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

58.09% (

1.07)

41.91% (

-1.07)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.72% (

0.21)

29.27% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.76% (

0.26)

65.23% (

-0.26)

Manchester City Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.19% (

0.28)

5.81% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.66% (

0.81)

22.34% (

-0.81)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 13.8%

Manchester City Under-21s 70.83%

Draw 15.37%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Manchester City Under-21s
2-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.15% Total : 13.8%	1-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.51% Total : 15.37%	1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 8.02% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 6.53% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 5.71% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 4.93% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.19) 0-4 @ 4.65% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 3.51% ( 0.09) 1-5 @ 3.25% ( 0.11) 0-5 @ 2.65% ( 0.08) 2-5 @ 2% ( 0.08) 1-6 @ 1.54% ( 0.08) 3-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 0-6 @ 1.26% ( 0.06) 2-6 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.23% Total : 70.83%