Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 56.25%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.86%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.