Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 64.56%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 17.98% and a draw had a probability of 17.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (4.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
64.56% ( 0.5)	17.46% ( -0.21)	17.98% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 68.38% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.37% (

0.55)

24.63% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.57% (

0.72)

44.43% (

-0.71)

Aston Villa Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.6% (

0.25)

7.4% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.33% (

0.64)

26.66% (

-0.63)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.84% (

0.09)

26.15% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.77% (

0.12)

61.23% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa Under-21s 64.56%

Derby County Under-21s 17.98%

Draw 17.46%

Aston Villa Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05) 4-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.03) 6-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.83% Total : 64.56%	1-1 @ 6.76% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.58% Total : 17.46%	1-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.05) Other @ 4.45% Total : 17.98%