Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland Under-21s win with a probability of 47.7%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.09%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.

Result
Sunderland Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
47.7% ( 1.12)	21.93% ( -0.02)	30.37% ( -1.1)

Both teams to score 66.93% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.22% (

-0.5)

32.78% (

0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.53% (

-0.58)

54.47% (

0.57)

Sunderland Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.67% (

0.19)

14.33% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.83% (

0.37)

42.17% (

-0.38)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.12% (

-0.86)

21.88% (

0.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.88% (

-1.32)

55.12% (

1.32)

Score Analysis

Sunderland Under-21s 47.7%

Derby County Under-21s 30.37%

Draw 21.93%

Sunderland Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.04) 4-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.59% Total : 47.7%	1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.47% Total : 21.93%	1-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 4.76% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.43% Total : 30.37%