Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.98%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 20.61% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (7.22%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Stoke City Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
59.98% ( -0)	19.41% ( 0.02)	20.61% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 65.5% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.85% (

-0.11)

30.15% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.63% (

-0.13)

51.37% (

0.13)

Stoke City Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.05% (

-0.03)

9.95% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.08% (

-0.08)

32.91% (

0.07)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.74% (

-0.08)

27.26% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.31% (

-0.1)

62.69% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Stoke City Under-21s 59.98%

Derby County Under-21s 20.61%

Draw 19.41%

Stoke City Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.75% Total : 59.98%	1-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.43% Total : 19.41%	1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.29% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.57% Total : 20.61%