Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 60.33%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.03% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.28%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
21.03% ( -0)	18.64% ( -0.01)	60.33% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 69.35% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.38% (

0.07)

25.62% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54.28% (

0.09)

45.72% (

-0.09)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.82% (

0.04)

24.18% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.5% (

0.06)

58.5% (

-0.06)

Aston Villa Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.46% (

0.02)

8.54% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.45% (

0.06)

29.55% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 21.03%

Aston Villa Under-21s 60.33%

Draw 18.64%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
2-1 @ 5.12% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.42% 2-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 21.03%	1-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.62% Total : 18.64%	1-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.28% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 5.17% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 3.15% ( 0) 1-5 @ 2.2% ( 0) 2-5 @ 1.56% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.55% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 1-6 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 4.03% Total : 60.33%