Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 53.59%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 24.95% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.17%) and 1-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley Town	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
53.59% ( 0.02)	21.47% ( -0)	24.95% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 63.82% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.13% (

0.01)

34.87% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.16% (

0.01)

56.85% (

-0)

Crawley Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.81% (

0.01)

13.2% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.08% (

0.01)

39.92% (

-0.01)

Aston Villa Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.52% (

-0)

26.49% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.33% (

-0.01)

61.67% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Crawley Town 53.59%

Aston Villa Under-21s 24.95%

Draw 21.47%

Crawley Town	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.17% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.08% 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.84% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.27% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.26% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.45% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.16% 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.14% Total : 53.59%	1-1 @ 9.4% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.33% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.5% 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.47%	1-2 @ 6.25% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.64% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.8% 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.37% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.93% 1-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.19% Total : 24.95%