AFC Wimbledon
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Aug 30, 2022 at 7pm UK
The Cherry Red Records Stadium

AFC Wimbledon
2 - 1
Aston Villa U21s

Kalambayi (12'), Davison (52')
Young-Coombes (42'), Kalambayi (73')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jay-Hart (29')
Lindley (52'), Ealing (53')
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between AFC Wimbledon and Aston Villa Under-21s.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

Last Six:
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Barrow
Saturday, August 27 at 3pm in League Two

Aston Villa Under-21s

Last Six:
Last Game: Aston Villa U21s 1-2 Leeds U21s
Friday, August 19 at 7pm in Premier League 2 - Div 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 47.3%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 28.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawAston Villa Under-21s
47.3% (-0.064 -0.06)24.53% (0.255 0.25)28.16% (-0.195 -0.2)
Both teams to score 56.05% (-0.999 -1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.57% (-1.251 -1.25)46.42% (1.245 1.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.29% (-1.187 -1.19)68.71% (1.181 1.18)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.29% (-0.526 -0.53)19.71% (0.52 0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.28% (-0.858 -0.86)51.71% (0.852 0.85)
Aston Villa Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.81% (-0.786 -0.79)30.19% (0.78 0.78)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.65% (-0.95099999999999 -0.95)66.35% (0.94500000000001 0.95)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 47.3%
    Aston Villa Under-21s 28.16%
    Draw 24.53%
AFC WimbledonDrawAston Villa Under-21s
1-0 @ 9.66% (0.348 0.35)
2-1 @ 9.4% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.85% (0.157 0.16)
3-1 @ 5.09% (-0.090999999999999 -0.09)
3-0 @ 4.25% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.05% (-0.123 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.07% (-0.072 -0.07)
4-0 @ 1.73% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 47.3%
1-1 @ 11.57% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 5.95% (0.307 0.31)
2-2 @ 5.63% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.53%
0-1 @ 7.13% (0.22 0.22)
1-2 @ 6.93% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.27% (0.041 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.77% (-0.079 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.7% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 28.16%