Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-21s win with a probability of 54.49%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.68%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Middlesbrough Under-21s
25.27% ( -10.47)	20.24% ( -1.41)	54.49% ( 11.89)

Both teams to score 68.93% (

-1.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.59% (

0.74)

28.4% (

-0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.75% (

0.9)

49.24% (

-0.89)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27% (

-5.3)

22.73% (

5.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.6% (

-8.53)

56.4% (

8.54)

Middlesbrough Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.21% (

3.91)

10.79% (

-3.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.18% (

8.06)

34.81% (

-8.05)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 25.27%

Middlesbrough Under-21s 54.49%

Draw 20.24%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Middlesbrough Under-21s
2-1 @ 5.99% ( -1.5) 1-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.84) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.89) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( -1.41) 2-0 @ 2.69% ( -1.22) 3-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.95) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.61) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.81) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.26) Other @ 2.15% Total : 25.27%	1-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.52) 0-0 @ 2.45% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.24%	1-2 @ 9.01% ( 0.78) 1-3 @ 6.68% ( 1.43) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( 1.37) 0-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.55) 2-3 @ 4.95% ( 0.36) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( 1.5) 1-4 @ 3.72% ( 1.2) 2-4 @ 2.76% ( 0.55) 0-4 @ 2.51% ( 1.07) 1-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.69) 3-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.08) 2-5 @ 1.23% ( 0.38) 0-5 @ 1.12% ( 0.56) Other @ 3.44% Total : 54.49%