Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton Under-21s win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Southampton Under-21s had a probability of 35.48% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 3-2 (5.28%). The likeliest Southampton Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Everton Under-21s would win this match.