Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading Under-21s win with a probability of 49.08%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.04%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.