UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 8, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Universitario de Lisboa

Portugal
2 - 1
Scotland

Fernandes (54'), Ronaldo (88')
Semedo (66'), Neves (67'), Fernandes (80')

FT(HT: 0-1)

McTominay (7')
Christie (39'), Robertson (51'), Ralston (86')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Portugal 2-1 Croatia
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	2	6
2	Turkey	3	0	6
3	Georgia	3	0	4
4	Czech Republic	3	-2	1

Scotland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Scotland 2-3 Poland
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Germany	3	6	7
2	Switzerland	3	2	5
3	Hungary	3	-3	3
4	Scotland	3	-5	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 77.45%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 8.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.51%), while for a Scotland win it was 1-2 (2.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Scotland
77.45% ( -0.56)	14.01% ( 0.25)	8.54% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 51.42% (

0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.01% (

-0.13)

31.98% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.45% (

-0.15)

53.55% (

0.15)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.3% (

-0.14)

6.69% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

75.21% (

-0.36)

24.79% (

0.36)

Scotland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.11% (

0.59)

44.88% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.16% (

0.47)

80.84% (

-0.48)

Score Analysis

Portugal 77.44%

Scotland 8.54%

Draw 14.01%

Portugal	Draw	Scotland
2-0 @ 10.98% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 9.9% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.06) 6-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 3.71% Total : 77.44%	1-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 3% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.97% Total : 14.01%	1-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.62% Total : 8.54%