UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Hampden Park

Scotland
2 - 3
Poland

Gilmour (46'), McTominay (76')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Szymanski (8'), Lewandowski (44' pen.), Zalewski (90+7' pen.)
Dawidowicz (35'), Zalewski (52'), Slisz (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Scotland and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Scotland

All competitions

Last Game: Scotland 0-1 Hungary
Sunday, June 23 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Germany	3	6	7
2	Switzerland	3	2	5
3	Hungary	3	-3	3
4	Scotland	3	-5	1

Poland

All competitions

Last Game: France 1-1 Poland
Tuesday, June 25 at 5pm in European Championship

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	2	6
2	France	3	1	5
3	Netherlands	3	0	4
4	Poland	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Poland had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Poland win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.

Result
Scotland	Draw	Poland
39.23% ( -1.44)	27.03% ( 0.18)	33.74% ( 1.26)

Both teams to score 50.57% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.31% (

-0.45)

54.69% (

0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.99% (

-0.38)

76.01% (

0.38)

Scotland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.79% (

-1)

27.21% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.37% (

-1.32)

62.63% (

1.32)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.47% (

0.61)

30.53% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.25% (

0.71)

66.75% (

-0.71)

Score Analysis

Scotland 39.23%

Poland 33.74%

Draw 27.02%

Scotland	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.28) 3-1 @ 3.62% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.04% Total : 39.23%	1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.02%	0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.29) 1-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.15% Total : 33.74%