UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Portugal
2 - 1
Croatia

Dalot (7'), Ronaldo (34')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Dalot (41' og.)
Modric (72')

Reaction

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Sep 6, 09:28

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions

Last Game: Portugal 0-0 France (3-5 pen.)
Friday, July 5 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	2	6
2	Turkey	3	0	6
3	Georgia	3	0	4
4	Czech Republic	3	-2	1

Croatia

All competitions

Last Game: Croatia 1-1 Italy
Monday, June 24 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	3	5	9
2	Italy	3	0	4
3	Croatia	3	-3	2
4	Albania	3	-2	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Croatia win was 0-1 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portugal in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Portugal.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Croatia
52.63% ( -2.06)	23.6% ( 0.52)	23.76% ( 1.53)

Both teams to score 54.95% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.05% (

-0.64)

45.94% (

0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.75% (

-0.61)

68.25% (

0.61)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.57% (

-0.98)

17.43% (

0.97)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.12% (

-1.73)

47.88% (

1.73)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.55% (

1.02)

33.45% (

-1.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.92% (

1.11)

70.08% (

-1.11)

Score Analysis

Portugal 52.63%

Croatia 23.76%

Draw 23.6%

Portugal	Draw	Croatia
1-0 @ 10.18% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.24) 3-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.37) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.24) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.75% Total : 52.63%	1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.6%	0-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.34) 1-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.28) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.32% Total : 23.76%