UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 2nd Leg

Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Belgium
3 - 0
Ukraine

(Belgium win 4-3 on aggregate)

De Cuyper (70'), Lukaku (75', 86')
Raskin (5'), Vanaken (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Zabarnyi (12'), Zinchenko (29'), Hutsuliak (45+2'), Vanat (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League playoff between Belgium and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions

Last Game: Ukraine 3-1 Belgium
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Ukraine

All competitions

Last Game: Ukraine 3-1 Belgium
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ukraine	0	0	0
2	Czech Republic	0	0	0
3	Georgia	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 56.03%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Ukraine had a probability of 20.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Ukraine win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
Belgium	Draw	Ukraine
56.03% ( -0.17)	23.02% ( 0.05)	20.94% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 53.09% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.38% (

-0.07)

46.62% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.11% (

-0.07)

68.89% (

0.06)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.54% (

-0.08)

16.46% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.85% (

-0.15)

46.15% (

0.15)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.55% (

0.08)

36.45% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.76% (

0.08)

73.23% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Belgium 56.03%

Ukraine 20.94%

Draw 23.02%

Belgium	Draw	Ukraine
1-0 @ 10.82% 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 56.03%	1-1 @ 10.92% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.02%	0-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.77% Total : 20.94%