/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fbellog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
-
Timothy Castagne
28'
-
Amadou Onana
67'
-
Ameen Al Dakhil
77'
-
Sandro Tonali
11'
-
Alessandro Bastoni
45'+2'
-
Moise Kean
90'+1'
Belgium vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F46%2Fsandro-tonali_1.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F41%2Fleandro-trossard.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Fluciano-spalletti.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Italy had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
Result
Belgium
51.11%
▲
(+1.11)
Draw
24.88%
▼
(-0.20)
Italy
24%
▼
(-0.92)
Both Teams to Score:
51.17%
▼
(-0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5
48.93%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 2.5
51.07%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 3.5
27.07%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 3.5
72.93%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 4.5
12.69%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 4.5
87.3%
▲
(+0.01)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5
80.02%
▲
(+0.46)
Under 0.5
19.98%
▼
(-0.46)
Over 1.5
47.84%
▲
(+0.73)
Under 1.5
52.15%
▼
(-0.73)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
63.95%
▼
(-0.81)
Under 0.5
36.05%
▲
(+0.81)
Over 1.5
27.17%
▼
(-0.83)
Under 1.5
72.83%
▲
(+0.83)
Score analysis
Belgium
51.1%
Draw
24.88%
Italy
24%
Belgium
1-0
@
11.59%
▲
(+0.17)
2-1 @ 9.53% ▲ (+0.06)
2-0 @ 9.34% ▲ (+0.26)
3-1 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.11)
3-0 @ 5.01% ▲ (+0.21)
3-2 @ 2.61% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 2.06% ▲ (+0.07)
4-0 @ 2.02% ▲ (+0.12)
4-2 @ 1.05% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 51.1%
2-1 @ 9.53% ▲ (+0.06)
2-0 @ 9.34% ▲ (+0.26)
3-1 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.11)
3-0 @ 5.01% ▲ (+0.21)
3-2 @ 2.61% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 2.06% ▲ (+0.07)
4-0 @ 2.02% ▲ (+0.12)
4-2 @ 1.05% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 51.1%
Draw
1-1
@
11.83%
▼
(-0.09)
0-0 @ 7.2% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.86% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 24.88%
0-0 @ 7.2% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.86% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 24.88%
Italy
0-1
@
7.35%
▼
(-0.17)
1-2 @ 6.04% ▼ (-0.19)
0-2 @ 3.75% ▼ (-0.17)
1-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.28% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 24%
1-2 @ 6.04% ▼ (-0.19)
0-2 @ 3.75% ▼ (-0.17)
1-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.28% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 24%
Head to Head
Build-up
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Fromelu-lukaku.jpg)