UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Parc des Princes

France
1 - 3
Italy

Barcola (1')
Kone (60')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Dimarco (30'), Frattesi (51'), Raspadori (74')
Retegui (49')

Reaction

Italy and Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori pictured on September 6, 2024

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Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on August 31, 2024

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The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

France

All competitions

Last Game: Spain 2-1 France
Tuesday, July 9 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	2	6
2	France	3	1	5
3	Netherlands	3	0	4
4	Poland	3	-3	1

Italy

All competitions

Last Game: Switzerland 2-0 Italy
Saturday, June 29 at 5pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	3	5	9
2	Italy	3	0	4
3	Croatia	3	-3	2
4	Albania	3	-2	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 56.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
France	Draw	Italy
56.96% ( -0.41)	25.12% ( 0.19)	17.92% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 42.43% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.65% (

-0.4)

58.34% (

0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.04% (

-0.31)

78.96% (

0.31)

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.49% (

-0.32)

20.5% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

-0.51)

52.99% (

0.5)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.37% (

0.02)

46.63% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.8% (

0.02)

82.2% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

France 56.95%

Italy 17.92%

Draw 25.11%

France	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 15.14% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 12% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.2% Total : 56.95%	1-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.51% Total : 25.11%	0-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 17.92%