UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Oct 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Global Energy Stadium

Italy
4 - 1
Israel

Retegui (41' pen.), Di Lorenzo (54', 79'), Frattesi (72')
Cambiaso (66')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Abu Fani (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Italy and Israel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Monday's UEFA Nations League clash with Israel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Italy 2-2 Belgium
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	3	3	7
2	France	3	3	6
3	Belgium	3	0	4
4	Israel	3	-6	0

Israel

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Israel 1-4 France
Thursday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	3	3	7
2	France	3	3	6
3	Belgium	3	0	4
4	Israel	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	Israel
63.01% ( 0.14)	20.69% ( 0.06)	16.3% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 52.2% (

-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.42% (

-0.63)

43.58% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.03% (

-0.62)

65.97% (

0.62)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.79% (

-0.15)

13.21% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.06% (

-0.31)

39.94% (

0.31)

Israel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.14% (

-0.62)

39.86% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.48% (

-0.58)

76.52% (

0.58)

Score Analysis

Italy 63%

Israel 16.3%

Draw 20.69%

Italy	Draw	Israel
2-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.1% Total : 63%	1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.69%	0-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.94% Total : 16.3%