La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 4

Sep 2, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves
1 - 0
Valencia

Ozkacar (6' og.)
Guridi (38'), Gorosabel (45+2'), Guevara (82'), Benavidez (89'), Garcia (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gaya (45+2'), Diakhaby (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Getafe 1-0 Alaves
Monday, August 28 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Valencia

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Valencia 1-2 Osasuna
Sunday, August 27 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Alaves were impressive in their last home match against Sevilla, and we are expecting them to be a difficult side to beat at Mendizorrotza Stadium this season. Valencia are still short of firepower, so we can see a low-scoring draw taking place this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 35.74%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (12.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Valencia
35.74% ( -0.34)	30.27% ( -0.1)	33.99% ( 0.44)

Both teams to score 41.41% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.05% (

0.31)

65.95% (

-0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.45% (

0.21)

84.55% (

-0.21)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.96% (

-0.06)

35.04% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.22% (

-0.06)

71.78% (

0.06)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.75% (

0.48)

36.25% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.97% (

0.48)

73.03% (

-0.48)

Score Analysis

Alaves 35.73%

Valencia 33.98%

Draw 30.26%

Alaves	Draw	Valencia
1-0 @ 13.31% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 35.73%	1-1 @ 13.51% 0-0 @ 12.7% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.45% Total : 30.26%	0-1 @ 12.88% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.96% Total : 33.98%