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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (10.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Newport County |
| 34.49% | 27.94% | 37.57% |
| Both teams to score 47.9% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.92% | 58.09% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.25% | 78.76% |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.25% | 31.75% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.82% | 68.18% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.19% | 29.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.11% | 65.89% |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 10.85% 2-1 @ 7.54% 2-0 @ 6.23% 3-1 @ 2.88% 3-0 @ 2.38% 3-2 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.85% Total : 34.48% | 1-1 @ 13.14% 0-0 @ 9.47% 2-2 @ 4.56% Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.94% | 0-1 @ 11.45% 1-2 @ 7.95% 0-2 @ 6.93% 1-3 @ 3.21% 0-3 @ 2.8% 2-3 @ 1.84% 1-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.57% |