Friendlies 1

Oct 17, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade de France

France
4 - 1
Scotland

Pavard (16', 24'), Mbappe (41' pen.), Coman (70')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Gilmour (11')
Patterson (36'), Cooper (40'), Taylor (84')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

France

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Netherlands 1-2 France
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	12	18
2	Greece	7	6	12
3	Netherlands	6	3	12
4	Republic of Ireland	7	0	6
5	Gibraltar	6	-21	0

Scotland

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Spain 2-0 Scotland
Thursday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	6	16	15
2	Scotland	6	9	15
3	Norway	7	2	10
4	Georgia	6	-4	7
5	Cyprus	7	-23	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 70.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Scotland had a probability of 11.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.68%), while for a Scotland win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.

Result
France	Draw	Scotland
70.5% ( 0.09)	18.26% ( -0.14)	11.25% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 46.35% (

0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.92% (

0.74)

44.08% (

-0.74)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.53% (

0.72)

66.47% (

-0.72)

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.73% (

0.23)

11.27% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.14% (

0.5)

35.87% (

-0.5)

Scotland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.23% (

0.57)

47.77% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.94% (

0.42)

83.06% (

-0.41)

Score Analysis

France 70.49%

Scotland 11.25%

Draw 18.26%

France	Draw	Scotland
2-0 @ 12.82% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 11.75% ( -0.27) 2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.54% Total : 70.49%	1-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.69% Total : 18.26%	0-1 @ 3.98% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.6% Total : 11.25%