Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2024 at 3pm UK

Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Gambia
1 - 0
Madagascar

Barrow (62')
Ceesay (30'), Fadera (38')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Patrick Laiton (27'), Caddy (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gambia and Madagascar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Madagascar 1-1 Gambia
Friday, October 11 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Madagascar

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Madagascar 1-1 Gambia
Friday, October 11 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Madagascar
36.19% ( 0.9)	27.49% ( 0.15)	36.31% ( -1.06)

Both teams to score 49.36% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.68% (

-0.57)

56.32% (

0.57)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.65% (

-0.46)

77.35% (

0.46)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.22% (

0.28)

29.78% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.14% (

0.34)

65.86% (

-0.34)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.29% (

-0.92)

29.71% (

0.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.23% (

-1.13)

65.76% (

1.13)

Score Analysis

Gambia 36.18%

Madagascar 36.31%

Draw 27.49%

Gambia	Draw	Madagascar
1-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.18%	1-1 @ 13% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.49%	0-1 @ 10.73% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.43% Total : 36.31%