Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 8, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Gambia
1 - 2
Tunisia

Sowe (14')
Adams (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Abdi (11'), Ali Ben Romdhane (76')
Sassi (59'), Jouini (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gambia and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Comoros 1-1 Gambia
Wednesday, September 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Tunisia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Tunisia 1-0 Madagascar
Thursday, September 5 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Tunisia
33.31% ( 0.05)	27.24% ( -0.03)	39.45% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 49.82% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.41% (

0.14)

55.59% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.24% (

0.12)

76.76% (

-0.11)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.73% (

0.11)

31.27% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.38% (

0.13)

67.62% (

-0.12)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.49% (

0.06)

27.52% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.98% (

0.07)

63.02% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Gambia 33.31%

Tunisia 39.45%

Draw 27.23%

Gambia	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 10% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.96% Total : 33.31%	1-1 @ 12.9% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.23%	0-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.33% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 39.45%