Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 5, 2024 at 8pm UK

Tunisia
1 - 0
Madagascar

Sassi (90+8')
Ben Ouannes (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Amada (36'), Randrianantenaina (49'), Carolus Andriamatsinoro (82'), Patrick Laiton (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Tunisia and Madagascar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tunisia

All competitions

Last Game: Namibia 0-0 Tunisia
Sunday, June 9 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Madagascar

All competitions

Last Game: Madagascar 0-0 Mali
Tuesday, June 11 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 44.56%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (7.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.65%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tunisia in this match.

Result
Tunisia	Draw	Madagascar
44.56% ( -1.64)	30.19% ( 0.54)	25.24% ( 1.09)

Both teams to score 38.48% (

-0.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.09% (

-0.95)

67.9% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.13% (

-0.64)

85.87% (

0.63)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.3% (

-1.37)

30.7% (

1.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.05% (

-1.65)

66.95% (

1.65)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.52% (

0.47)

44.47% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.49% (

0.38)

80.51% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

Tunisia 44.56%

Madagascar 25.24%

Draw 30.19%

Tunisia	Draw	Madagascar
1-0 @ 16.12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.4) 2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.22) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.08% Total : 44.56%	0-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.47) 1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.35% Total : 30.19%	0-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.76% Total : 25.24%