Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 53.34%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Mali had a probability of 19.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.