Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 66.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 12.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.58%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.