Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 57.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 18.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.