Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 53.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 20.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.