Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 16, 2024 at 8pm UK

Mali
2 - 0
South Africa

Traore (60'), Sinayoko (66')
Niakate (18'), Kouyate (43'), Coulibaly (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mvala (58'), Xulu (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and South Africa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Last Game: Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 6 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Tunisia	0	0	0
2	Mali	0	0	0
3	South Africa	0	0	0
4	Namibia	0	0	0

South Africa

All competitions

Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Lesotho
Wednesday, January 10 at 1pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Tunisia	0	0	0
2	Mali	0	0	0
3	South Africa	0	0	0
4	Namibia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 70.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for South Africa had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.96%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a South Africa win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.

Result
Mali	Draw	South Africa
70.95% ( -0.05)	19.23% ( 0.04)	9.81% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 38.51% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.06% (

-0.12)

51.94% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.31% (

-0.11)

73.68% (

0.11)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.57% (

-0.05)

13.43% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.61% (

-0.11)

40.39% (

0.11)

South Africa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.48% (

-0.05)

55.52% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.81% (

-0.03)

88.19% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Mali 70.93%

South Africa 9.81%

Draw 19.23%

Mali	Draw	South Africa
2-0 @ 15.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 14.96% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.16% Total : 70.93%	1-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.37% Total : 19.23%	0-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.59% 0-2 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 1.54% Total : 9.81%