Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 17.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.95%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tunisia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Tunisia.