EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Fourth Round

Sep 30, 2020 at 7pm UK

Turf Moor

Burnley
0 - 3
Man City

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sterling (35', 49'), Torres (65')
Sterling (76'), Silva (90+1')

Reaction

Manchester City's Raheem Sterling celebrates with Cole Palmer in the EFL Cup on September 30, 2020

Pep Guardiola pleased with Manchester City response to Leicester drubbing

City slumped to a 5-2 loss at the hands of Leicester on Sunday.

Sep 30, 21:46

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.66%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 11.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-0 (3.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Manchester City
11.25%	17.09%	71.66%

Both teams to score 50.51%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.39%

38.61%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.08%

60.92%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.81%

44.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.72%

80.28%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.5%

9.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.13%

31.87%

Score Analysis

Burnley 11.25%

Manchester City 71.66%

Draw 17.09%

Burnley	Draw	Manchester City
1-0 @ 3.43% 2-1 @ 3.3% 2-0 @ 1.4% 3-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.07% Total : 11.25%	1-1 @ 8.07% 0-0 @ 4.2% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.94% Total : 17.09%	0-2 @ 11.63% 0-1 @ 9.88% 1-2 @ 9.5% 0-3 @ 9.13% 1-3 @ 7.45% 0-4 @ 5.37% 1-4 @ 4.39% 2-3 @ 3.04% 0-5 @ 2.53% 1-5 @ 2.07% 2-4 @ 1.79% 0-6 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.89% Total : 71.66%