Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 1st Leg

May 28, 2024 at 7pm UK

Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda
6 - 2
Excelsior

Omgba (12'), Janosek (39' pen.), Van den Bergh (42'), Koscelnik (74'), Mar Omarsson (78', 90+4')
Lucassen (17'), van de Merbel (45+4'), Staring (52')

FT(HT: 3-2)

Duijvestijn (25'), Parrott (45+6' pen.)
Zagre (15')
Duijvestijn (38'), Zagre (72')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs clash between NAC Breda and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NAC Breda

All competitions

Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Last Game: Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda
Saturday, May 25 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Goals
for

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Last Game: Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag
Saturday, May 25 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: NAC Breda 1-2 SBV Excelsior

With both sides heading into this first-leg meeting enjoying a goal-laden spell, we are anticipating an exciting matchup at Rat Verlegh Stadion on Tuesday night. NAC Breda have been mightily impressive recently, but Excelsior's Eredivisie quality will provide a considerable test, and we feel that the visitors will take a narrow lead into next weekend's second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 52.16%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.

Result
NAC Breda	Draw	SBV Excelsior
52.16%	22.87%	24.96%

Both teams to score 58.78%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.5%

41.5%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.1%

63.9%

NAC Breda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.02%

15.97%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.72%

45.27%

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.96%

30.04%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.83%

66.16%

Score Analysis

NAC Breda 52.16%

SBV Excelsior 24.96%

Draw 22.86%

NAC Breda	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.71% 1-0 @ 8.8% 2-0 @ 8.07% 3-1 @ 5.94% 3-0 @ 4.94% 3-2 @ 3.57% 4-1 @ 2.72% 4-0 @ 2.26% 4-2 @ 1.64% 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 3.52% Total : 52.16%	1-1 @ 10.58% 2-2 @ 5.84% 0-0 @ 4.8% 3-3 @ 1.43% Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.86%	1-2 @ 6.37% 0-1 @ 5.77% 0-2 @ 3.47% 1-3 @ 2.55% 2-3 @ 2.34% 0-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 3.08% Total : 24.96%