NAC Breda
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 28, 2024 at 7pm UK
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Excelsior

NAC Breda
6 - 2
Excelsior

Omgba (12'), Janosek (39' pen.), Van den Bergh (42'), Koscelnik (74'), Mar Omarsson (78', 90+4')
Lucassen (17'), van de Merbel (45+4'), Staring (52')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Duijvestijn (25'), Parrott (45+6' pen.)
Zagre (15')
Duijvestijn (38'), Zagre (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs clash between NAC Breda and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NAC Breda

All competitions
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs
Last Game: Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda
Saturday, May 25 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs
Last Game: Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag
Saturday, May 25 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 52.16%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.

Result
NAC BredaDrawSBV Excelsior
52.16%22.87%24.96%
Both teams to score 58.78%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.5%41.5%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.1%63.9%
NAC Breda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.02%15.97%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.72%45.27%
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.96%30.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.83%66.16%
Score Analysis
    NAC Breda 52.16%
    SBV Excelsior 24.96%
    Draw 22.86%
NAC BredaDrawSBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.71%
1-0 @ 8.8%
2-0 @ 8.07%
3-1 @ 5.94%
3-0 @ 4.94%
3-2 @ 3.57%
4-1 @ 2.72%
4-0 @ 2.26%
4-2 @ 1.64%
5-1 @ 1%
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 52.16%
1-1 @ 10.58%
2-2 @ 5.84%
0-0 @ 4.8%
3-3 @ 1.43%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.86%
1-2 @ 6.37%
0-1 @ 5.77%
0-2 @ 3.47%
1-3 @ 2.55%
2-3 @ 2.34%
0-3 @ 1.39%
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 24.96%

How you voted: Winner SF2 vs Winner SF1

Winner Semi-final 2
37.7%
Draw
18.9%
Winner Semi-final 1
43.4%
53
Head to Head
May 6, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 38
Excelsior
2-2
NAC Breda
Dallinga (45+1'), Niemeijer (48')
Driouech (71')
Velanas (10'), Malone (90+4')
Banzuzi (65'), Velanas (71')
Oct 1, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 9
NAC Breda
4-1
Excelsior
Haye (45+1'), El Yaakoubi (71' og.), Seuntjens (85'), De Rooij (87')
Velanas (19'), Haye (35')
Duku (64')
Nieuwpoort (45+1')
Apr 23, 2021 5.45pm
Gameweek 35
NAC Breda
1-2
Excelsior
El Allouchi (45' pen.)
Adilehou (15')
Niemeijer (55', 60')
Mendes Moreira (75'), Skogen (77')
Jan 3, 2021 11.15am
Gameweek 18
Excelsior
0-3
NAC Breda
Fiorini (17'), De Rooij (44'), Bilate (86')
van Hooijdonk (41'), Schouten (86')
Jan 31, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 24
Excelsior
2-2
NAC Breda
Vloet (30'), Bruins (73' pen.)
Paul van Hecke (87'), Verschueren (94')
van Anholt (73')