Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 2nd Leg

Jun 2, 2024 at 5pm UK

Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Excelsior
4 - 1
NAC Breda

(NAC Breda win 7-6 on aggregate)

Parrott (20', 35' pen., 50'), Kemper (42')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Staring (58')
Garbett (63'), Staring (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoff final between SBV Excelsior and NAC Breda, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Last Game: NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior
Tuesday, May 28 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Goals
for

Top scorers

NAC Breda

All competitions

Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Last Game: NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior
Tuesday, May 28 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.57%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.

Result
SBV Excelsior	Draw	NAC Breda
46.21% ( 0.06)	22.52% ( -0.03)	31.27% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 65.23% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.77% (

0.11)

35.23% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.76% (

0.12)

57.24% (

-0.12)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.23% (

0.06)

15.77% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.1% (

0.12)

44.9% (

-0.12)

NAC Breda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.44% (

0.04)

22.56% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.85% (

0.05)

56.15% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

SBV Excelsior 46.21%

NAC Breda 31.27%

Draw 22.52%

SBV Excelsior	Draw	NAC Breda
2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.98% Total : 46.21%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.52%	1-2 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.62% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.35% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 3.24% Total : 31.27%