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Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage
Jul 25, 2021 at 12pm UK
Kashima Soccer Stadium

Romania U23s
0 - 4
South Korea U23s


Gheorghe (25'), Pascanu (66')
Gheorghe (45+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Marin (27' og.), Eom (59'), Kang-in (84' pen., 90')
Jung (8')

Preview: Romania Under-23s vs. South Korea Under-23s - prediction, team news, lineups

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Romania Under-23s take on South Korea Under-23s in Group B of the Tokyo Olympic Games on Sunday, with the Asian side needing a positive result after losing to New Zealand Under-23s in their opening game.

Romania, meanwhile, can seal their progression to the knockout stages with victory after beating Honduras 1-0 on Thursday.

IMG

Despite not naming a single over-age player in their 22-man squad for the Olympics, Romania demonstrated plenty of experience in their win over Honduras.

The CONCACAF outfit finished fourth in football at the 2016 Olympics, so could not afforded to be taken for granted by their European opponents.

The match was ultimately settled by a bizarre moment in first-half injury time, with Andrei Ciobanu's in-swinging corner appearing to go directly in.

On reflection, however, it was Elvan Oliva's glancing header which diverted the ball past his own goalkeeper, handing Romania victory in their first Olympic football match for 57 years.

Another on Sunday against South Korea will ensure safe passage to the knockout stages with a game to spare.

IMG

South Korea, meanwhile, named their maximum quota of three over-age players for their Olympics squad, but fell to a hugely disappointing 1-0 defeat to New Zealand on Thursday.

The Koreans had 12 shots compared to their opponent's tally of two, but could not find a breakthrough as West Ham United defender Winston Reid cleared a goal-line strike off the line in particularly superb defensive performance.

Moments later, Burnley forward Chris Wood beat goalkeeper Bum-keun Song from 12 yards out in what proved to be the decisive goal of the game in the 70th minute.

There is now huge pressure on Kim Hak-bum's side's shoulders to beat Romania on Sunday, as they could crash out of the competition with a game to spare should they fail to do so.

IMG

Romania's only change is likely to be Radu Boboc coming in from the start in place of Florin Stefan at full-back.

Mirel Radoi switched the two players during half-time, and it remains unclear whether this was tactical or due to an injury.

South Korea, meanwhile, could look to make a few changes in offensive areas in order to solve their problems in front of goal from the defeat to New Zealand.

Lee Dong-jun could replace Valencia's support striker Lee Kang-in, who looked to have a little too much pressure on his shoulders at 20 years of age.

Aioani; Ratiu, Pascanu, Ghita, Boboc; Marin, Dulca; Dobre, Ciobanu, Gheorghe; Ganea

Bum-keun; You-hyeon, Tae-uk, Sang-min, Yoon-sung; Won-sang, Du-jea, Dong-hyun, Chang-hoon; Dong-jun; Ui-jo

1-1

We can envisage a cagey, low-scoring affair ensuing on Sunday, especially given that neither side are exactly prolific in front of goal.

Romania know that a point will suit them down to the ground in terms of progressing in this competition, which means South Korea could struggle to break down another low-block side.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania Under-23s win with a probability of 43.69%. A win for South Korea Under-23s had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Romania Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest South Korea Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.


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