Primeira Liga | Gameweek 32

May 4, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 0
Casa Pia

Fukui (17'), Fontan (23')

Caue (45+3'), Caue (45+3'), Kraev (47'), Cassiano (62'), Benaissa-Yahia (75'), Sequeira (86'), Dias (90+8')
Fonte (43'), Mohamed (90+9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Santa Clara 2-0 Arouca
Saturday, April 26 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Casa Pia

All competitions

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Estoril
Tuesday, April 29 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.26%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Casa Pia
45.26% ( -0.15)	26.31% ( 0.09)	28.43% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 50.57% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.33% (

-0.32)

53.67% (

0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.84% (

-0.27)

75.16% (

0.28)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.36% (

-0.21)

23.64% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.26% (

-0.31)

57.73% (

0.31)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.22% (

-0.13)

33.77% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.56% (

-0.14)

70.43% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Arouca 45.25%

Casa Pia 28.43%

Draw 26.3%

Arouca	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 11.51% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 45.25%	1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.3%	0-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0) Other @ 2.35% Total : 28.43%