Primeira Liga | Gameweek 30

Apr 19, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 0
Estrela Amadora

Trezza (5'), Nandin (67')
Fontan (39'), Jason (45+3'), Pinto (56'), Santos (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cabral (43'), Ruiz (45+3'), Sacalumbo (75'), Ferro (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Benfica 2-2 Arouca
Sunday, April 13 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 0-1 Farense
Sunday, April 13 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 26.77%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.93%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Estrela Amadora
46.21% ( -0.63)	27.02% ( 0.35)	26.77% ( 0.28)

Both teams to score 47.41% (

-0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.79% (

-1.11)

57.21% (

1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.94% (

-0.89)

78.06% (

0.9)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.27% (

-0.79)

24.73% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.72% (

-1.12)

59.29% (

1.12)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.99% (

-0.37)

37.01% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.2% (

-0.37)

73.8% (

0.37)

Score Analysis

Arouca 46.21%

Estrela Amadora 26.77%

Draw 27.02%

Arouca	Draw	Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.37% Total : 46.21%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.02%	0-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 6.32% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.78% Total : 26.77%