Primeira Liga | Gameweek 26

Mar 16, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 1
Estoril

Sylla (13')
Seabra (35')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Marques (90+2' pen.)
(67'), Holsgrove (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: AVS 0-1 Arouca
Saturday, March 8 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Estoril 2-2 Farense
Saturday, March 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
42.82% ( -0.73)	25.59% ( 0.15)	31.59% ( 0.58)

Both teams to score 54.5% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.66% (

-0.43)

49.34% (

0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.61% (

-0.39)

71.39% (

0.39)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.07% (

-0.53)

22.93% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.3% (

-0.8)

56.7% (

0.8)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.72% (

0.18)

29.28% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.75% (

0.22)

65.25% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Arouca 42.82%

Estoril Praia 31.59%

Draw 25.58%

Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 3.57% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.13% Total : 42.82%	1-1 @ 12.14% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.58%	0-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.5% Total : 31.59%