Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.