Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 3, 2025 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
3 - 1
Estoril

Inacio (5'), Gyokeres (36', 90+6' pen.)
Manuel Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicissimo (33')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Costa (84')
Xeka (50')
Carvalho (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Gil Vicente 0-1 Sporting Lisbon
Thursday, February 27 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Estoril 2-1 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 22 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 72.34%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 11.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 1-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Estoril Praia
72.34% ( 0.35)	16.5% ( -0.11)	11.16% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 52.46% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.04% (

-0.18)

35.96% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.95% (

-0.2)

58.05% (

0.2)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.33% (

0.03)

8.67% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.12% (

0.08)

29.88% (

-0.08)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.45% (

-0.54)

42.55% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.09% (

-0.47)

78.91% (

0.47)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 72.34%

Estoril Praia 11.16%

Draw 16.5%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Estoril Praia
2-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.03% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 4.69% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 2.3% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.72% Total : 72.34%	1-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.5%	1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.28% Total : 11.16%