Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.88%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.