Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.