Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22

Feb 15, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
3 - 2
Casa Pia

Alan (12' pen., 26' pen., 32')
Pinto (72'), Antonisse (90+6'), Tavares (90')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Svensson Rio (50'), Cassiano (90+6')
Ferreira de Sousa (76'), Roberto (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 3-2 Moreirense
Saturday, February 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-0 Estrela Amadora
Sunday, February 9 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Casa Pia
39.22% ( 0.1)	28.03% ( 0.01)	32.75% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 47.33% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.34% (

-0.05)

58.66% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.79% (

-0.04)

79.21% (

0.03)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.88% (

0.04)

29.12% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.95% (

0.04)

65.05% (

-0.05)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.77% (

-0.1)

33.22% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.17% (

-0.11)

69.83% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 39.21%

Casa Pia 32.75%

Draw 28.03%

Moreirense	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 11.93% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.64% Total : 39.21%	1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 28.03%	0-1 @ 10.66% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.51% Total : 32.75%