Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21

Feb 9, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Campo do Cevadeiro

Casa Pia
1 - 0
Estrela Amadora

Cassiano (37')
Fonte (23'), Larrazabal (76'), Pedro Goulart Silva (78'), Martins Pereira (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pinho (23'), Lima (29'), Daniel Valente Moreira (89'), Drame (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Santa Clara 2-1 Casa Pia
Saturday, February 1 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-3 Benfica
Sunday, February 2 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 47.31%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Estrela Amadora
47.31% ( -2.4)	27.96% ( 1.09)	24.73% ( 1.32)

Both teams to score 43.35% (

-1.59)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.4% (

-2.68)

61.6% (

2.67)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.56% (

-2.03)

81.44% (

2.03)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.82% (

-2.34)

26.18% (

2.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.73% (

-3.25)

61.27% (

3.25)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.73% (

-0.28)

41.27% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.2% (

-0.25)

77.8% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 47.31%

Estrela Amadora 24.73%

Draw 27.95%

Casa Pia	Draw	Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 14.48% ( 0.47) 2-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.37) 3-0 @ 4.34% ( -0.47) 3-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.45) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.21) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.27) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.25) Other @ 1.94% Total : 47.31%	1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 1.03) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.54% Total : 27.95%	0-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.85) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.35) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.22% Total : 24.73%