Primeira Liga | Gameweek 26

Mar 16, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
2 - 0
Estrela Amadora

Handel (10'), Arcanjo (66')
Mendes (56')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ferro (12'), Bucca (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-4 Betis
Thursday, March 13 at 8pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Gil Vicente
Friday, March 7 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 64.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 13.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.26%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Estrela Amadora
64.52% ( -0.16)	21.81% ( 0.06)	13.67% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 42.64% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.89% (

-0.06)

53.1% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.31% (

-0.05)

74.68% (

0.05)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.17% (

-0.07)

15.82% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55% (

-0.13)

45% (

0.13)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.66% (

0.12)

49.33% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.8% (

0.09)

84.19% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 64.51%

Estrela Amadora 13.67%

Draw 21.8%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 14.39% 2-0 @ 13.26% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 64.51%	1-1 @ 10.16% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.52% Total : 21.8%	0-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.61% Total : 13.67%