Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 1, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
2 - 0
AVS

Samu (55'), Arcanjo (78')
Santos (17')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Vela Rodrigues (41'), Assuncao (44'), Ochoa (45'), Grau (50')
Assuncao (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and AVS, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 1-0 Guimaraes
Sunday, January 26 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

AVS

All competitions

Last Game: AVS 1-0 Gil Vicente
Monday, January 27 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 61.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for AVS had a probability of 16.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.28%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for an AVS win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	AVS
61.26% ( -0.35)	21.92% ( 0.16)	16.82% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 49.35% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.06% (

-0.37)

47.94% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.88% (

-0.34)

70.12% (

0.34)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.85% (

-0.23)

15.15% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.25% (

-0.44)

43.75% (

0.44)

AVS Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.17% (

0.02)

41.83% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.71% (

0.02)

78.29% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 61.26%

AVS 16.82%

Draw 21.91%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	AVS
1-0 @ 11.96% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 11.28% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.3% Total : 61.26%	1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 21.91%	0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 1.78% Total : 16.82%