Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 43.58%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.