Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28

Apr 6, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
0 - 1
Estrela Amadora

Dias (37')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sacalumbo (12'), Cabral (81')
Sacalumbo (21'), Cordeiro (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Santa Clara 1-0 Nacional
Sunday, March 30 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 0-3 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, March 29 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 22.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Estrela Amadora
52.4% ( -0.51)	24.84% ( 0.26)	22.76% ( 0.25)

Both teams to score 49.91% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.95% (

-0.78)

52.05% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.22% (

-0.68)

73.78% (

0.68)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.16% (

-0.5)

19.84% (

0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.07% (

-0.82)

51.93% (

0.82)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.26% (

-0.2)

37.74% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.48% (

-0.2)

74.52% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Nacional 52.4%

Estrela Amadora 22.76%

Draw 24.84%

Nacional	Draw	Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 12.11% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 9.79% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.28% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.79% Total : 52.4%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.87% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.62% Total : 22.76%