Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Matheus Dias 37' yellowcard
  • goal Francisco Sacalumbo 12'
  • yellowcard Francisco Sacalumbo 21'
  • yellowcard Leo Cordeiro 72'
  • goal Jovane Cabral 81'

Nacional vs Estrela Amadora - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Mar 30, 2025 3.30pm
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
32
Top scorer
Daniel Penha

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Mar 29, 2025 6.00pm
Estrela Amadora 0 - 3 Sporting Lisbon
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Kikas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 22.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result

Nacional 52.4% (-0.60)
Draw 24.84% (+0.24)
Estrela Amadora 22.76% (+0.37)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.91% (-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5 47.95% (-0.58)
Under 2.5 52.05% (+0.59)
Over 3.5 26.22% (-0.51)
Under 3.5 73.78% (+0.51)
Over 4.5 12.14% (-0.33)
Under 4.5 87.86% (+0.33)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 80.16% (-0.47)
Under 0.5 19.84% (+0.47)
Over 1.5 48.07% (-0.76)
Under 1.5 51.93% (+0.76)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5 62.26% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 37.74% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 25.48% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 74.52% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Nacional 52.4%
Draw 24.84%
Estrela Amadora 22.76%
Nacional
1-0 @ 12.11% (+0.11)
2-0 @ 9.79% (-0.06)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.06)
3-0 @ 5.28% (-0.11)
3-1 @ 5.15% (-0.11)
3-2 @ 2.51% (-0.05)
4-0 @ 2.14% (-0.08)
4-1 @ 2.08% (-0.08)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.04)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 52.4%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.8% (+0.12)
0-0 @ 7.49% (+0.18)
2-2 @ 4.65% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 24.84%
Estrela Amadora
0-1 @ 7.3% (+0.18)
1-2 @ 5.75% (+0.06)
0-2 @ 3.56% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 1.87% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.51% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.16% (+0.03)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 22.76%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11
Nov 10, 2024 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jose Gomes
  • Ferro 62' yellowcard
  • Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira 77' goal
  • Kikas 86' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Esteves 12'