Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 22.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.