Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25

Mar 8, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
3 - 0
Nacional

Amdouni (5'), Kokcu (23' pen.), Pavlidis (90+2' pen.)

FT(HT: 2-0)

Vitor (19'), Soumare (45+1'), Aurelio (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 0-1 Barcelona
Wednesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Famalicao
Saturday, March 1 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 83.42%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 5.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.33%) and 4-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.17%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-2 (1.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Nacional
83.42% ( -0.14)	11.02% ( 0.03)	5.56% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 46.94% (

0.74)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.04% (

0.46)

28.95% (

-0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.08% (

0.56)

49.92% (

-0.56)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.99% (

0.06)

5.01% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

80% (

0.18)

20% (

-0.18)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.41% (

0.75)

50.59% (

-0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.93% (

0.5)

85.06% (

-0.5)

Score Analysis

Benfica 83.41%

Nacional 5.56%

Draw 11.02%

Benfica	Draw	Nacional
2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.21) 3-0 @ 11.33% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.18) 4-1 @ 5.78% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.07) 6-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06) 6-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.04) 7-0 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 3.75% Total : 83.41%	1-1 @ 5.17% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.68% Total : 11.02%	1-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 5.56%