Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Monaco win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.